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Extra resources for British Military Transport, 1829-1956
But we don’t yet know how to control a variable system like that with sufficient accuracy. Very little research has been done into this concept. For detailed control, you need fine-grained data about precipitation and fine-grained weather forecasting. At the moment, the weather data for many regions are notoriously poor. In Ethiopia, for example, there are 1,600 weather stations, only 16 of which release their measurements via the Internet. Most of them report on paper, which usually takes 2 months.
To discover the forces driving the growth of a city, the rules are varied and the outcomes are compared with real-world situations, highlighting which forces are important and how they relate to one another. As computing power increases, we can perform increasingly realistic “multiagent” or “Monte Carlo simulations,” as physicists call them. Although many complex systems remain that are beyond the capacity of even the largest supercomputers, these too can be modeled if you apply a few mathematical tricks.
Increasing the efficiency of water use can reduce demand. The average global efficiency of irrigation, for example, is about 30 percent. Israel, by contrast, can achieve 90 percent efficiency. There are much more effective methods than simply flooding fields, which allows most of the water to evaporate or drain out of the soil. Sprinklers are twice as efficient, and drip irrigation even more so. There is also room for improving the irrigation channels themselves: Irrigation systems often feature open channels, from which you get a lot of evaporation, causing the remaining water to silt up.
British Military Transport, 1829-1956 by David Fletcher: